MadStatters's 2014 Class A Football Predictions

Posted: 08/24/2014 - by matt madsen

New classification for SA, but some things remain the same--primarily the quest to win the new district and advance in the post season.  Also unchanged is the art of prediction.  It is not a science.  Science is best left to lab-coated geeks, such as Walter H. White from "Breaking Bad", whom I respect.  Forecasting in Class A instead of 1A is like riding a bike, but just a different bike.  Well, the Madstatter has adjusted the saddle, lubed the drivetrain, aired the tires and become familiar with the new components.  Let' pedal.

There is much to appreciate about Class A as a whole, even though our new district is our old district from 8-10 years ago.  The reigning state champ, West Lyon (remember them?) moved up to 1A and finalist Brooklyn BGM isn't ranked in the Top 10 by the DM Register.  However, power ranking guru BC Moore slots them atop Class A and I have them right near the top.  The Register also shuns Dome team Wapsie Valley, owner of shelves of big trophies, but BC Moore and I like their chances.

How does that translate into Bracketology, you ask?  (Please, please ask!)  Ha!  It does not, at least yet.  You may already know that the IHSAA will set pairings one round at a time and will not publish a bracket for the entire postseason.  Along will unnecessarily doubling the playoff field, add this to the list of Association errors (according to the MadStatter and dozens of like-minded pundits).  The stated intent of IHSAA is to reduce travel, but apparently not the excessive number of teams that will be on busses Wednesday, October 29th

I say right-size the field (by half) and the aggregate number of miles traveled by teams on school nights is reduced dramatically—with a healthy remainder (math, not science).  And fewer teams will play on school nights.  And, and... advancing teams won't play four big games in 14 days.  But I digress (on purpose).

OK, back to the teams.  32 of the 62 Class A teams will make the playoffs.  Many 1st round games could be rematches from district play—a byproduct of the reduced travel fallacy.   Four will get to the Dome.  I will risk saying they will represent geographical sectors of Iowa.

Teams qualifying from the eight districts (in order of finish):

District 1 (2nd strongest):  CB St. Albert, Lo-Ma, Audubon, Griswold.  Might have been strongest district had Walnut not joined 2013 Dome Team AHST and bumped them up to 1A.

D-2 (Strongest):  South O'Brien, Lawton-Bronson, LeMars Gehlen Catholic, Sioux Central.  No standout team but strength across the board.  Teams are always bigger up north.

D-3 (4th):  Bishop Garrigan, Algona {Bears blanked SA in 2005 semis}, Mason City Newman Catholic, Nashua-Plainfield, Belmond Klemme.  BC Moore has Garrigan as #2.  Only 7 teams instead of 8 in this district and these smart schools schedule another tough game instead.  (Register has Nashua #4 in state, but I say #3 in District.)

D-4 (3rd):  Wapsie Valley, Gladbrook-Reinbeck, AGWSR-Ackley, Denver.  Solid teams with history of success who live and play close to the Dome--even play early round games there.  (Register has G-R #3 and Ackley #4.)

D-5 (6th):  Maquoketa Valley-Delhi, Lisbon, Starmont, Postville.  Maq. Valley is Register’s #1 with a stud running back who piled up 2,554 yards (1.5 miles) last year.  Lisbon home to wrestling success factory--tough kids.

D-6 (8th, meaning weakest, sorry kids):  Pekin, WACO, Lone Tree, Van Buren.  MadStatters' Loras College roomie is AD at Lone Tree (why not grow another tree to eradicate loneliness?).  Lions won 1982 football crown, and that trophy, like the tree, is also lonely.  Sorry, Tom. 

D-7 (5th):  BGM-Brooklyn, Lynville-Sully, Montezuma, Belle Plaine.  BGM was 2013 finalist & Falcons beat Montezuma in 2006 title game.   Belle Plain QB is a great kid and son of another Loras Duhawk pal--Tim, the brother of Tom Squiers the Lone Tree AD.  You are welcome, Tim.  (My best to Ruth & them.)

D-8 (7th):  Mt. Ayr, Nodaway Valley, Pleasantville, Earlham.  Mt. Ayr strong & Nod. Valley almost got us in Greenfield last October.  Potential playoff foes here if we get past our district teams (again) and Rand-McNally tells the IHSAA that East is closer to CB than North.

Those are the 32.  Listed in the order of confidence the four finalists will be:  BGM-Brooklyn, Maquoketa Valley-Delhi, CB St. Albert and Algona Bishop Garrigan.  (My next three would be Ackley, Nashua or Mt.Ayr.)

In 2013 I was 78% correct in picking 1A playoff teams and got 3 of 4 Dome teams right, including 1st & 2nd place.   Before Week 3 games I’ll tell you who will win it all and may post a mock bracket and ask the IHSAA if they want to use it, no charge.   They will remember how—it’s like riding a bike.  

SASF Article by Matt Madsen

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